Methods

How the hiking ratings are made

Trail ratings come from simple temperature cutoffs, not from AI and not from the NWS. The cutoffs below are our own, and no medical or heat-safety expert has reviewed them.

Air or feels-like temperatureLabel
Under 85FLower exposure
85F to 94FModerate exposure
95F to 104FHigh exposure
105F and aboveExtreme exposure

What a rating looks like

On a hot day, a rating might read: Lower heat exposure before 9am, skip from 10am (104F forecast at 1pm). Forecast updated 6:15am.

Each hour is rated by the air temperature or the feels-like temperature, whichever is higher, and the rating says when the feels-like number is the one that counts. Ratings stop at sunset, which is estimated for each trail with the NOAA method and can be off by a few minutes. Hours after sunset still show their temperatures.

A Heat Advisory, Extreme Heat Warning, Extreme Heat Watch, Flash Flood Watch, Flash Flood Advisory, or Flood Advisory is named in the rating, and while one is in effect the rating never calls an hour lower heat exposure. A Flash Flood Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Warning, or Dust Storm Warning means No rating. A Winter Storm Warning, Blizzard Warning, Ice Storm Warning, Extreme Cold Warning, Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Watch, Extreme Cold Watch, Cold Weather Advisory, Freeze Warning, High Wind Warning, or Wind Advisory is named on any trail it covers. On the three high-elevation trails (Aspen, Marshall Gulch, and Butterfly), a Winter Storm Warning, Blizzard Warning, Ice Storm Warning, or Extreme Cold Warning means No rating instead.

A trail also shows No rating when our closure notes list it as closed, when today is one of its listed weekday closures and the order hasn't ended (a federal holiday stays open when that order says so), when forecast data is missing or more than 6 hours old, or when alerts couldn't be checked. If alerts couldn't be checked, the page says so instead of showing no alerts. Your browser also checks the forecast age when you open a page, and switches the ratings, the daily high, and the hourly labels to No rating once the weather data is more than 6 hours old. For a weekday closure, your browser works out today from the Phoenix date, and shows No rating when today is closed, or when the page was built on a closed day and today is open.

The forecast refreshes every 4 hours, overnight too, so it should only pass the 6-hour limit if an update fails. The Sabino Creek gauge reading is marked out of date when it is more than 2 hours older than the weather data on the page.

Shade, trail length, and water are listed when an official source gives them, and marked Not listed when it doesn't. They don't change the ratings. We don't model shade hour by hour.

Data sources

Maps

Most route lines are public-domain USFS or NPS trail data, simplified for the map. Brown Mountain and Yetman use OpenStreetMap lines under the ODbL, which are mapped by volunteers rather than surveyed by an agency. Sabino Canyon and Tumamoc Hill show only a pin, because we don't have a good source line for those routes yet. Each map caption names its source.

Questions

When does a trail show No rating?

When the forecast is missing or more than 6 hours old, when alerts couldn't be checked, when the trail is listed as closed, or during a Flash Flood Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Warning, or Dust Storm Warning. On Aspen, Marshall Gulch, and Butterfly, a Winter Storm Warning, Blizzard Warning, Ice Storm Warning, or Extreme Cold Warning also means No rating.

If alerts couldn't be checked, does that mean there are none?

No. The page tells you alerts couldn't be checked. Look at weather.gov before you go.

Do winter warnings change every trail the same way?

No. Every trail names any winter or cold alert that covers it. Only the high-elevation trails, Aspen, Marshall Gulch, and Butterfly, switch to No rating for a Winter Storm Warning, Blizzard Warning, Ice Storm Warning, or Extreme Cold Warning.

Still being checked

Closure notes come from Coronado National Forest alerts, last read on Oct 2, 2026. They are updated by hand, not by an automatic feed, so they can fall behind. Park Service alerts aren't included, so check nps.gov for trails in Saguaro National Park.

We didn't use Pima County's GIS trailhead locations. The county says its GIS data isn't meant for site-specific decisions, and the terms for commercial reuse weren't clear.